Well, the markets certainly aren't boring. The big indecies are bouncing like mad, up, down, all over the place. I'm sure they'd move in 3D right now if they could.
With all of that being said, the big picture hasn't changed. Europe is still proving to be a mess, and that's just the beginning of the rest of the western world. Asia seems to be slowing a little, but we've also known this for some time. Silver has gotten caught up as a base metal, but it won't last.
Portfolio update.
Account Details
Cash = $58,305
Assets
--> XIV -- 2000*5.80 = 11,600 [ 2000@14.75 =2 9,500]
--> RIMM -- 200*24.40 = 4,880 [ 200@28.75 = 5,750]
--> GDXJ -- 400*29.29 = 11,716 [ 400@33.56 = 13,425]
--> SLW -- 400*30.91 = 12,364 [ 400@34.55 = 13,820]
= 11,600 + 4,880+ 11,716 + 12,364
= $40,560
Total Assets= 58,305 + 40,560= $98,865
Liabilities
--> OCT'11 SLW $35 PUTS = 30*4.55 = 13,650
--> JAN'12 LULU $40 PUTS = 20*3.10 = 6,200
--> JAN'12 RIMM $27.50 CALLS = 2*2.86 = 572
--> JAN'13 GLD $160 PUTS = 5*23.30 = 11,650
= 13,650 + 6,200 + 572 + 11,650
= $32,072
Total= 98,865 - 32,072
= 66,793
Currently down a whopping 33,207 dollars. But our positions are still solid. The SLV options are worrisome, but that is just terrible luck, and there is still a full 2 weeks until expiry, and with the way silver moves, anything is possible. We'll hold and trust the market gets back to a more normal pricing mechanism quickly.
Looking to possibly add to our GLD option position, as premiums have almost doubled. This is why we started with just a 5 contract position.
Thursday, October 6, 2011
Thursday, September 22, 2011
Wow.
One word.
What an open. The DOW and S&P down ~3.5%, after falling 1% yesterday. Commidities are just getting hammered. Their respective mining companies getting hit even harder.
Lets scoop up a couple more shares in securities we already own. Just a dabble.
100 SLW @ 37.20 = 3,720 = market
100 GDXJ @ 32.00 = 3,200 (Currently trading at 32.05, hoping to fill momentarily).
This will leave us with a total of 400 SLW, and 400 GDXJ shares.
Sit tight and ride this out. If something needs to change I will post it here.
(PS. GDXJ just filled @ 32.00).
One word.
What an open. The DOW and S&P down ~3.5%, after falling 1% yesterday. Commidities are just getting hammered. Their respective mining companies getting hit even harder.
Lets scoop up a couple more shares in securities we already own. Just a dabble.
100 SLW @ 37.20 = 3,720 = market
100 GDXJ @ 32.00 = 3,200 (Currently trading at 32.05, hoping to fill momentarily).
This will leave us with a total of 400 SLW, and 400 GDXJ shares.
Sit tight and ride this out. If something needs to change I will post it here.
(PS. GDXJ just filled @ 32.00).
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
Well it has been a while since I have had time to update this blog, but that I have still paid close attention to the markets, and am constatnly thinking of ways to profit.
Our XIV position has really taken a hit, but seems to have stabilized here. I'm torn. Normally I'd like to double down, buy more shares, and ride some serious profits to the upside. But I'm hesitant in this situation, because I still think volatility can move higher at any moment, and the fund has taken a serious hit here in the last couple months. We are already invested, so lets just sit back and let things play as they should. Also, I'm not against leaving a fair bit of cash on the sidelines still, as this market still seems directionless. It needs to go lower, but there are some serious forces out there doing everything they can to make sure that doesn't happen.
Commodities have held up, albeit down a little in the last few days. Both our options positions are doing exactly as they should, with both well above our strike price, and time continuing to decay.
Our position in RIMM has also taken a hit, but we knew this company was in trouble. It's just purely a play that the market has punished this company too much. Their technology is still sound, and I'm confident they are no where near throwing in the towell, so we'll hold. However, I am going to go back to the options market to try and lower our entry cost. May as well derive some income from sitting on the position.
New recomendations.
Sell 2 JAN'12 27.50 RIMM CALL for the bid price of 1.65 per contract, which will raise $330 total.
This will limit our upside in RIMM to basically break even, as our entry point will be moved to $27.10 (28.75 - 1.65), and our exit point if the option is exercised will be 27.50 (a total 0.40 gain). But if the stock stays down in its current range of $23, we'll just collect the premium and be able to re-evaluate things in the new year.
Sell 5 JAN'13 160.00 GLD PUTS for the bid price of 14.00 per contract, which will raise $7000 total.
More than a year from now, this should be free monies.
BUY 100 GDXJ shares with a bid of $36.75. This is basically a market bid, as the security is currently trading at $36.76. I expect this will fill as I write this. Yup. Filled at $36.75. This will cost us a total of $3,675.00.
Account Details.
CASH
= 61,570 + 330 + 7,000 - 3,675 = 65,225
SECURITIES
-->XIV -- 2000 * 7.13 = 14,260 [2000@14.75=29,500]
-->RIMM -- 200 * 23.14 = 4,628 [ 200@28.75= 5,750]
-->GDXJ -- 300 * 36.72 = 11,016 [300@34.08=10,225]
-->SLW -- 300 * 41.12 = 12,336 [ 300@33.67=10,100]
= 14,260 + 4,628 + 11,016 + 12,336
= 42,240
Liabilities
--OCT'11 SLV $35 Puts = 30*0.56 = 1,680
--JAN'12 LULU $40 Puts = 20*2.35 = 4,700
--JAN'12 RIMM $27.50 Calls = 2*1.64 = 328
--JAN'13 GLD $160 Puts = 5*14.40 = 7,200
= 1,680 + 4,700 + 328 + 7,200
= $13,908
Total
= 65,225 + 42,240 - 13,908
= $93,557 (-6,443).
We are currently sitting on a 6.4% loss, or a total of 6,443 dollars. Not happy about this, as the fund has been in existence for 5 months now exactly. That's more than 15% on a yearly basis if extrapolated out. Yikes. The XIV position is really hurting the portfolio right now, but it has rebounded from it's lows, and seems to be functioning a litte more along the lines we originaly thought it would as of late. I'm prepared to hold this a little longer and see where it takes us.
The rest is doing fine, with everything doing exactly as it should. This has certainly helped offset the XIV loss, but you're only as good as your weakest link, so we need to live with it. And to be honest, when compared to the DJIA since fund inception, we are basically dead even. Surprising, I know, as nothing we've done is designed to mimick the market, but it is what it is.
Our XIV position has really taken a hit, but seems to have stabilized here. I'm torn. Normally I'd like to double down, buy more shares, and ride some serious profits to the upside. But I'm hesitant in this situation, because I still think volatility can move higher at any moment, and the fund has taken a serious hit here in the last couple months. We are already invested, so lets just sit back and let things play as they should. Also, I'm not against leaving a fair bit of cash on the sidelines still, as this market still seems directionless. It needs to go lower, but there are some serious forces out there doing everything they can to make sure that doesn't happen.
Commodities have held up, albeit down a little in the last few days. Both our options positions are doing exactly as they should, with both well above our strike price, and time continuing to decay.
Our position in RIMM has also taken a hit, but we knew this company was in trouble. It's just purely a play that the market has punished this company too much. Their technology is still sound, and I'm confident they are no where near throwing in the towell, so we'll hold. However, I am going to go back to the options market to try and lower our entry cost. May as well derive some income from sitting on the position.
New recomendations.
Sell 2 JAN'12 27.50 RIMM CALL for the bid price of 1.65 per contract, which will raise $330 total.
This will limit our upside in RIMM to basically break even, as our entry point will be moved to $27.10 (28.75 - 1.65), and our exit point if the option is exercised will be 27.50 (a total 0.40 gain). But if the stock stays down in its current range of $23, we'll just collect the premium and be able to re-evaluate things in the new year.
Sell 5 JAN'13 160.00 GLD PUTS for the bid price of 14.00 per contract, which will raise $7000 total.
More than a year from now, this should be free monies.
BUY 100 GDXJ shares with a bid of $36.75. This is basically a market bid, as the security is currently trading at $36.76. I expect this will fill as I write this. Yup. Filled at $36.75. This will cost us a total of $3,675.00.
Account Details.
CASH
= 61,570 + 330 + 7,000 - 3,675 = 65,225
SECURITIES
-->XIV -- 2000 * 7.13 = 14,260 [2000@14.75=29,500]
-->RIMM -- 200 * 23.14 = 4,628 [ 200@28.75= 5,750]
-->GDXJ -- 300 * 36.72 = 11,016 [300@34.08=10,225]
-->SLW -- 300 * 41.12 = 12,336 [ 300@33.67=10,100]
= 14,260 + 4,628 + 11,016 + 12,336
= 42,240
Liabilities
--OCT'11 SLV $35 Puts = 30*0.56 = 1,680
--JAN'12 LULU $40 Puts = 20*2.35 = 4,700
--JAN'12 RIMM $27.50 Calls = 2*1.64 = 328
--JAN'13 GLD $160 Puts = 5*14.40 = 7,200
= 1,680 + 4,700 + 328 + 7,200
= $13,908
Total
= 65,225 + 42,240 - 13,908
= $93,557 (-6,443).
We are currently sitting on a 6.4% loss, or a total of 6,443 dollars. Not happy about this, as the fund has been in existence for 5 months now exactly. That's more than 15% on a yearly basis if extrapolated out. Yikes. The XIV position is really hurting the portfolio right now, but it has rebounded from it's lows, and seems to be functioning a litte more along the lines we originaly thought it would as of late. I'm prepared to hold this a little longer and see where it takes us.
The rest is doing fine, with everything doing exactly as it should. This has certainly helped offset the XIV loss, but you're only as good as your weakest link, so we need to live with it. And to be honest, when compared to the DJIA since fund inception, we are basically dead even. Surprising, I know, as nothing we've done is designed to mimick the market, but it is what it is.
Monday, August 15, 2011
And we're back to normal. The news agencies are talking about nothing, we've been pormised interest rates at 0 for at least another 2 years, and stocks are moving higher. Easy money right? It will be, 'till it isn't.
Nothing has changed. Big themes still fully intact.
Assets
Cash = $61,570
Equities
--> XIV -- 2000 * 10.10 = 20,200 [2000@14.75 = 29,500 ~ -9,300]
--> RIMM -- 200 * 27.11 = 5,422 [200@28.75 = 5,750 ~ -328]
--> SLW -- 300 * 38.67 = 11,601 [300@33.67 = 10,100 ~ +1,501]
--> GDXJ -- 200 * 36.03 = 7,206 [200@32.75 = 6,550 ~ +656]
= 20,200 + 5,422 + 11,601 + 7,206
= 44,429 [51,900 ~ -7,471]
Total Assets = 61,570 + 44,429= $105,999
Liabilities
Options
--> OCT'11 SLV $35 PUTS - 30 * 1.34 = 4,020 [30@2.16 = 6,470 ~ +2,450]
--> JAN'12 LULU $40 PUTS - 20 * 2.60 = 5,200 [20@3.50 = 7,000 ~ +1,800]
= 2,450 + 1,800= 9,220 [13,470 ~ +4,250]
Total Liabilities= $9,220
Total = 105,999 - 9,220= 96,779 [-3,221; -3.22%]
Still have a ways to go in recouping our losses from last week, but we certainly did better than the market in the last week. Not that I care about the market, I care about my results. And right now, I'm still down 3.22% in the last few months. Waste of time and resources. But if the markets calm down and our position in XIV turns around, we'll be sitting very pretty. Not to mention we still have lots of cash to take advantage of a big downturn. Keeping my eye on KGC. I think it's getting ready to make a multi year run soon. Will probably buy some on a another down leg, or maybe use the options market like we have in SLV. Not sure yet.
Nothing has changed. Big themes still fully intact.
Assets
Cash = $61,570
Equities
--> XIV -- 2000 * 10.10 = 20,200 [2000@14.75 = 29,500 ~ -9,300]
--> RIMM -- 200 * 27.11 = 5,422 [200@28.75 = 5,750 ~ -328]
--> SLW -- 300 * 38.67 = 11,601 [300@33.67 = 10,100 ~ +1,501]
--> GDXJ -- 200 * 36.03 = 7,206 [200@32.75 = 6,550 ~ +656]
= 20,200 + 5,422 + 11,601 + 7,206
= 44,429 [51,900 ~ -7,471]
Total Assets = 61,570 + 44,429= $105,999
Liabilities
Options
--> OCT'11 SLV $35 PUTS - 30 * 1.34 = 4,020 [30@2.16 = 6,470 ~ +2,450]
--> JAN'12 LULU $40 PUTS - 20 * 2.60 = 5,200 [20@3.50 = 7,000 ~ +1,800]
= 2,450 + 1,800= 9,220 [13,470 ~ +4,250]
Total Liabilities= $9,220
Total = 105,999 - 9,220= 96,779 [-3,221; -3.22%]
Still have a ways to go in recouping our losses from last week, but we certainly did better than the market in the last week. Not that I care about the market, I care about my results. And right now, I'm still down 3.22% in the last few months. Waste of time and resources. But if the markets calm down and our position in XIV turns around, we'll be sitting very pretty. Not to mention we still have lots of cash to take advantage of a big downturn. Keeping my eye on KGC. I think it's getting ready to make a multi year run soon. Will probably buy some on a another down leg, or maybe use the options market like we have in SLV. Not sure yet.
Tuesday, August 9, 2011
Another wild day. If you can say one thing, it's that the financial world is not boring these days. The markets are not in valuation mode, that's for sure. It's purely reactionary to different news items, and investor confidence in whether the government can 'fix' the problems. We know they can't, so filter the noise out and brace for more stormy weather.
The markets are closed, and although the values have been all over the map, at least we can give an update now. A +- 10% over the course of any day or couple days is fully possible at this time, but we're still positioned well, so I'm not gonna sweat it. Neither should you.
Assets
Cash
= $61,570
Equities
--> XIV -- 2000 * 10.72 = 21,440 [2000@14.75 = 29,500 ~ -8,060]
--> RIMM -- 200 * 23.12 = 4,624 [200@28.75 = 5,750 ~ -1,126]
--> SLW -- 300 * 35.44 = 10,632 [300@33.67 = 10,100 ~ +532]
--> GDXJ -- 200 * 33.93 = 6,786 [200@32.75 = 6,550 ~ +236]
= 21,440 + 4,624 + 10,632 + 6,786= 43,482 [51,900 ~ -8,418]
Total Assets
= 61,570 + 43,482
= $105,052
Liabilities
Options
--> OCT'11 SLV $35 PUTS - 30 * 2.53 = 7,590 [30@2.16 = 6,470 ~ -1,120]
--> JAN'12 LULU $40 PUTS - 20 * 4.40 = 8,800 [20@3.50 = 7,000 ~ -1,800]
= 7,590 + 8,800= 16,390 [13,470 ~ -2,920]
Total Liabilities= $16,390
Total
= 105,052 - 16,390
= 88,662 [-8,418 -2,920 = -11,338, -11.34%]
Big hit from last week, but we're in some solid trades. Even though our options are down, both are sitting outside the money, and their value is a direct result of the VIX skyrocketing. The VIX will come down, time decay will eat at their values, and we should reap the rewards. This would imply that we should sell some options here, which is exactly what I'm thinking of. However, I'm not going to be greedy at this point, I'm going to wait and see what the rest of the week brings. It'll be unfortunate if we miss a good oportunity to dive in, but ultimately I'd like to hunker down and keep some cash just in case there's even better opportunities in the next little bit.
The markets are closed, and although the values have been all over the map, at least we can give an update now. A +- 10% over the course of any day or couple days is fully possible at this time, but we're still positioned well, so I'm not gonna sweat it. Neither should you.
Assets
Cash
= $61,570
Equities
--> XIV -- 2000 * 10.72 = 21,440 [2000@14.75 = 29,500 ~ -8,060]
--> RIMM -- 200 * 23.12 = 4,624 [200@28.75 = 5,750 ~ -1,126]
--> SLW -- 300 * 35.44 = 10,632 [300@33.67 = 10,100 ~ +532]
--> GDXJ -- 200 * 33.93 = 6,786 [200@32.75 = 6,550 ~ +236]
= 21,440 + 4,624 + 10,632 + 6,786= 43,482 [51,900 ~ -8,418]
Total Assets
= 61,570 + 43,482
= $105,052
Liabilities
Options
--> OCT'11 SLV $35 PUTS - 30 * 2.53 = 7,590 [30@2.16 = 6,470 ~ -1,120]
--> JAN'12 LULU $40 PUTS - 20 * 4.40 = 8,800 [20@3.50 = 7,000 ~ -1,800]
= 7,590 + 8,800= 16,390 [13,470 ~ -2,920]
Total Liabilities= $16,390
Total
= 105,052 - 16,390
= 88,662 [-8,418 -2,920 = -11,338, -11.34%]
Big hit from last week, but we're in some solid trades. Even though our options are down, both are sitting outside the money, and their value is a direct result of the VIX skyrocketing. The VIX will come down, time decay will eat at their values, and we should reap the rewards. This would imply that we should sell some options here, which is exactly what I'm thinking of. However, I'm not going to be greedy at this point, I'm going to wait and see what the rest of the week brings. It'll be unfortunate if we miss a good oportunity to dive in, but ultimately I'd like to hunker down and keep some cash just in case there's even better opportunities in the next little bit.
Friday, August 5, 2011
Well, the debt limit was resolved [kinda?]. Don't have much time to write a report, but the markets got smacked yesterday, and have been on a roller coaster ride all day today.
We have a fair bit of cash still, so lets jump into this market here. This is why we hold cash.
Buy 200 Shares of SLW @ Market [$34.00] - $6,800.00
This will give us a 300 share position. Like I said, I would really like to build a sizable position in this company. I strongly believe silver is moving higher, much higer, and Silver Wheaton is perfectly position to profit from this move. This should hopefully mean larger upside to the price of silver.
The volatility has also pushed XIV way down. The size of the drop is fairly concerning, as this is a smack down of almost 50% from top to bottom. But lets gamble. Lets double down here.
1000 Shares of XIV @ Market [$12.00] - $12,000.00
The Gold and Silver juniors have also been hit real hard, in this move. So lets jump on that board and hope that this move has over reacted.
200 Shares of GDXJ @ Market [$32.75] - $6,550.00
That's it for now. Only going to update the cash and stock positions for our account, as trying to do a live update is futile in a market moving as much as it is currently.
Account Details
Assets
Cash
= 86,470 - 6,800 - 12,000 - 6,550
= $61,120
Equities
--> XIV -- 1000 + 1000 = 2000 Shares
--> RIMM -- 200 Shares
--> SLW -- 100 + 200 = 300 Shares
--> GDXJ -- 200 Shares
Total Assets --
Liabilities
Options
--> OCT'11 SLV $35 PUTS * 30
--> JAN'12 LULU $40 PUTS * 20
Total Liabilities --
Total--
We have a fair bit of cash still, so lets jump into this market here. This is why we hold cash.
Buy 200 Shares of SLW @ Market [$34.00] - $6,800.00
This will give us a 300 share position. Like I said, I would really like to build a sizable position in this company. I strongly believe silver is moving higher, much higer, and Silver Wheaton is perfectly position to profit from this move. This should hopefully mean larger upside to the price of silver.
The volatility has also pushed XIV way down. The size of the drop is fairly concerning, as this is a smack down of almost 50% from top to bottom. But lets gamble. Lets double down here.
1000 Shares of XIV @ Market [$12.00] - $12,000.00
The Gold and Silver juniors have also been hit real hard, in this move. So lets jump on that board and hope that this move has over reacted.
200 Shares of GDXJ @ Market [$32.75] - $6,550.00
That's it for now. Only going to update the cash and stock positions for our account, as trying to do a live update is futile in a market moving as much as it is currently.
Account Details
Assets
Cash
= 86,470 - 6,800 - 12,000 - 6,550
= $61,120
Equities
--> XIV -- 1000 + 1000 = 2000 Shares
--> RIMM -- 200 Shares
--> SLW -- 100 + 200 = 300 Shares
--> GDXJ -- 200 Shares
Total Assets --
Liabilities
Options
--> OCT'11 SLV $35 PUTS * 30
--> JAN'12 LULU $40 PUTS * 20
Total Liabilities --
Total--
Thursday, July 21, 2011
Thursday Day here, another week has passed, and very little seems to have changed. The US lawmakers are still squabbling over the debt ceiling, the US (and global?) economy still seems buggered (initial jobless claims rising 10K this week, German manufacturing unexpectadly fell), and the European debt crises still rages.
Interest rates in the US must start moving higher. But 'must' doesn't include a time frame. This debt situation is out of control, lending to any government, especially the world's most indebted for next to nothing makes no sense for anyone. But that being said, this economy is not well, and will not be for a long time to come. Any rise in interest rates will break any sort of legs it has to stand on its own. Something to think about anyway.
As for our portfolio, no new trades or recomendations. Just happy to sit on our positions for the time being. If SLW gets hit a little harder, may add to our position (in small chunks).
Account Details
Cash = $86,470
Assets
--> XIV -- 1000*18.09 = 18,090 [1000@17.50=17,500]
--> RIMM -- 200*27.10 = 5,420 [ 200@28.75= 5,750]
--> SLW -- 100*38.74 = 3,874 [ 100@33.00= 3,300]
= 18,090 + 5,420 + 3,874
= $27,384
Liabilities
--> OCT'11 SLW $35 PUTS = 30*1.61 = 4,830
--> JAN'12 LULU $40 PUTS = 20*1.85 = 3,700
= 4,830 + 3,700
= $8,530
Total
= 86,470 + 27,384 - 8,530
= $105,324
Another good week for us, as our portfolio was up more than 2%. We are now sitting on a $5,324 gain (5.32%) in just over one quarter. We need to get more exposure to the metals, but I haven't decided on what the best angle is. We could maybe roll our SLV options out to a further out month at a higher strike price, and continue to collect premiums. Or we could buy some call options, or stocks outright. A 5% return is great over a quarter, but when these metals go, 5% is going to be for chumps.
Interest rates in the US must start moving higher. But 'must' doesn't include a time frame. This debt situation is out of control, lending to any government, especially the world's most indebted for next to nothing makes no sense for anyone. But that being said, this economy is not well, and will not be for a long time to come. Any rise in interest rates will break any sort of legs it has to stand on its own. Something to think about anyway.
As for our portfolio, no new trades or recomendations. Just happy to sit on our positions for the time being. If SLW gets hit a little harder, may add to our position (in small chunks).
Account Details
Cash = $86,470
Assets
--> XIV -- 1000*18.09 = 18,090 [1000@17.50=17,500]
--> RIMM -- 200*27.10 = 5,420 [ 200@28.75= 5,750]
--> SLW -- 100*38.74 = 3,874 [ 100@33.00= 3,300]
= 18,090 + 5,420 + 3,874
= $27,384
Liabilities
--> OCT'11 SLW $35 PUTS = 30*1.61 = 4,830
--> JAN'12 LULU $40 PUTS = 20*1.85 = 3,700
= 4,830 + 3,700
= $8,530
Total
= 86,470 + 27,384 - 8,530
= $105,324
Another good week for us, as our portfolio was up more than 2%. We are now sitting on a $5,324 gain (5.32%) in just over one quarter. We need to get more exposure to the metals, but I haven't decided on what the best angle is. We could maybe roll our SLV options out to a further out month at a higher strike price, and continue to collect premiums. Or we could buy some call options, or stocks outright. A 5% return is great over a quarter, but when these metals go, 5% is going to be for chumps.
Thursday, July 14, 2011
Thursday Day here, just a quick update.
We have been filled on our position for XIV. My stock tracker doesn't seem to be working at the moment, so I'm not sure the exact date we were filled, but lets write it down as 1000 shares @ $17.50.
Silver has made a bit of a moonshot on the comments by big Ben, and the rest of the market seems to be still trying to digest the news, good or bad? Who knows, but it'll probably take stocks higher as more and more cash hits the floor and the dollar starts to slide.
All good things for us. The only thing we need to remember is we do have two positions tied to the consumer, and as fewer and fewer people have money to spend, there will be a time to exit these trades. Not ready to pull the plug yet, but just can't forget to constantly re-evaluate things.
And on a side note, LULU underwent a 2/1 stock split, cutting share prices in half. This means we now have twice as many options contracts, but their strike price is also halved to $40.
Updated Account Details
Account Details
Cash= $103,970 - 17,500= 86,470
Assets
-->XIV -- 1000 * 16.27 = 16,270 [1000@17.50=17,500]
-->RIMM -- 200 * 27.40 = 5,480 [ 200@28.75= 5,750]
-->SLW -- 100 * 37.93 = 3,793 [ 100@33.00= 3,300]
= 16,270 + 5,480 + 3,793
= 25,543
Liabilities
--OCT'11 SLW $35 Puts = 30*1.90 = 5,700
--JAN'12 LULU $40 Puts = 20*1.90 = 3,800
= 5,700 + 3,800
= $9,500
Total
= 86,470 + 25,543 - 9,500
= $102,513
We are showing our biggest gain (ha, not huge) so far at 2.513%. Our options are moving in the right direction, and now that we have a position in XIV, we should be able to sit on that and let it take our portfolio higher.
SLV has been on a tear, helping our SLW position as well. LULU has held up well, but XIV and RIMM are underwater slightly. XIV is a long term play, and something that appears to fluctuate short term, but consistently make new highs over the medium-longer term. I'm glad we didn't chase it, and let the market come back to our bid. RIMM is the other position slightly under water. Again, this is just a valuation play. The company is still making money, lots of it. There's takeover potential that nobody is talking about. And I believe there's more upside potential than downside. However I will keep an eye on the situation, and if we need to sell and cut our losses, so be it.
We have been filled on our position for XIV. My stock tracker doesn't seem to be working at the moment, so I'm not sure the exact date we were filled, but lets write it down as 1000 shares @ $17.50.
Silver has made a bit of a moonshot on the comments by big Ben, and the rest of the market seems to be still trying to digest the news, good or bad? Who knows, but it'll probably take stocks higher as more and more cash hits the floor and the dollar starts to slide.
All good things for us. The only thing we need to remember is we do have two positions tied to the consumer, and as fewer and fewer people have money to spend, there will be a time to exit these trades. Not ready to pull the plug yet, but just can't forget to constantly re-evaluate things.
And on a side note, LULU underwent a 2/1 stock split, cutting share prices in half. This means we now have twice as many options contracts, but their strike price is also halved to $40.
Updated Account Details
Account Details
Cash= $103,970 - 17,500= 86,470
Assets
-->XIV -- 1000 * 16.27 = 16,270 [1000@17.50=17,500]
-->RIMM -- 200 * 27.40 = 5,480 [ 200@28.75= 5,750]
-->SLW -- 100 * 37.93 = 3,793 [ 100@33.00= 3,300]
= 16,270 + 5,480 + 3,793
= 25,543
Liabilities
--OCT'11 SLW $35 Puts = 30*1.90 = 5,700
--JAN'12 LULU $40 Puts = 20*1.90 = 3,800
= 5,700 + 3,800
= $9,500
Total
= 86,470 + 25,543 - 9,500
= $102,513
We are showing our biggest gain (ha, not huge) so far at 2.513%. Our options are moving in the right direction, and now that we have a position in XIV, we should be able to sit on that and let it take our portfolio higher.
SLV has been on a tear, helping our SLW position as well. LULU has held up well, but XIV and RIMM are underwater slightly. XIV is a long term play, and something that appears to fluctuate short term, but consistently make new highs over the medium-longer term. I'm glad we didn't chase it, and let the market come back to our bid. RIMM is the other position slightly under water. Again, this is just a valuation play. The company is still making money, lots of it. There's takeover potential that nobody is talking about. And I believe there's more upside potential than downside. However I will keep an eye on the situation, and if we need to sell and cut our losses, so be it.
Wednesday, July 6, 2011
Updates on the trades recomended last week.
XIV - Has traded down to our bid level, so we have been left unfilled. No new guidance, happy to leave our bid at $17.50 for now. This may change tho.
RIMM - Filled the following day (June 30) at $28.75. We now have 200 shares, and will look to ride this higher RIMM pushes through it's troubles.
SLW - Again, filled the following day (June 30) at $33.00. Just a small position really, but hopefully this is something we can add to over the next little while. I will be hard pressed to sell this position, it'll be more of a buy and hold, and buy some more.
Account Details
Cash = 113,020 - 5,750 [200*28.75] - 3,300 [100*33.00] = $103,970
Assets
-->RIMM -- 200 * 28.06 = 5,612 -- [200@28.75=5,750]
-->SLW-- 100 * 36.10 = 3,610 -- [100@33.00=3,300]
= 5612 + 3,610 = $9,222
Liabilities
--OCT'11 SLW $35 Puts = 30*270 = 8,100
--JAN'12 LULU $80 Puts = 10*3.70 = 3,700; 8,100 + 3,700 = $11,800
Total = 103,970 + 9,222 - 11,800 = $101,392
Both SLV and LULU had great weeks, pushing our options contracts into positive territory. Our purchass of SLW shares has proved (short term) to be great timing. RIMM has droped slightly, but not enough to make a meaningful impact. We are showing our first profit in a while, currently at $1,392 for a 1.39% gain since fund inception on Wednesday April 20, 2011 (~2.5 months ago).
XIV - Has traded down to our bid level, so we have been left unfilled. No new guidance, happy to leave our bid at $17.50 for now. This may change tho.
RIMM - Filled the following day (June 30) at $28.75. We now have 200 shares, and will look to ride this higher RIMM pushes through it's troubles.
SLW - Again, filled the following day (June 30) at $33.00. Just a small position really, but hopefully this is something we can add to over the next little while. I will be hard pressed to sell this position, it'll be more of a buy and hold, and buy some more.
Account Details
Cash = 113,020 - 5,750 [200*28.75] - 3,300 [100*33.00] = $103,970
Assets
-->RIMM -- 200 * 28.06 = 5,612 -- [200@28.75=5,750]
-->SLW-- 100 * 36.10 = 3,610 -- [100@33.00=3,300]
= 5612 + 3,610 = $9,222
Liabilities
--OCT'11 SLW $35 Puts = 30*270 = 8,100
--JAN'12 LULU $80 Puts = 10*3.70 = 3,700; 8,100 + 3,700 = $11,800
Total = 103,970 + 9,222 - 11,800 = $101,392
Both SLV and LULU had great weeks, pushing our options contracts into positive territory. Our purchass of SLW shares has proved (short term) to be great timing. RIMM has droped slightly, but not enough to make a meaningful impact. We are showing our first profit in a while, currently at $1,392 for a 1.39% gain since fund inception on Wednesday April 20, 2011 (~2.5 months ago).
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
Wednesday evening here, after the markets have closed in NY for the day.
It's been a while since I've been updating this space. I have still been watching the markets diligently and need to be more disciplined in getting this updated.
The markets have not been rewarding our trades as of late, but this seems to have changed in the last few days. The SLW trade is still under some pressure, but LULU has been doing exactly as I thought it would. The options have now started to move in our favor.
I think I'm going to recomend taking a few small equity positions here. We still have a fairly large exposure with the SLV options, but our LULU trade (knock on wood) looks fairly secure here.
Recomendation.
1000 Shares of XIV. This is an ETF that tracks the VIX indicator. It is designed to move in the opposite direction that the standard VIX moves, but due to its design, profits from the difference in the futures market. It has just undergone a reverse split, and continues to climb in value. Current price is $17.55. Lets put our bid in at $17.50 to keep it simple.
1000 * 17.50 = $17,500
Next is a beaten down tech company that I think has just been hit far too hard. Not going to take a large position here, as this company certainly will have some struggles going forward. RIMM is the company I'm thinking of. With a share price of just $28.78, it has fallen by more than 80% off of it's highs. It's also got gap theory working for it, as it has 4 major gaps to fill taking it all the way back to the $80 dollar range.
Recomendation.
200 shares of RIMM. We'll put our bid in at $28.75, just a fraction below today's close of $28.78.
200 * 28.75 = $5,750
Final recomendation is another silver play. Silver has been hit hard the last few months, and the equities even more so. Silver Wheaton is still a great company, with a great business model that will do extremely well in the coming years. I have been waiting to see if it would find a bottom or not, and it seems to be forming one here in the low $30's. I would like to jump into this play from the equity side of things, as opposed to options like we have on SLV. Just an quick buy here, starting position. If it drops further with SLV, great we can load up the truck and get some more.
Recomendation.
100 shares of SLW. We can put our bid in at $33.00, as it does tend to move a fair bit during the day, and its closing price was $33.33 today shouldn't be out of reach for such a bid.
100 * 33.00 = $3,300.
All in all we may be spending $26,550 (17,500 + 5,750 + 3,300) at the open tomorrow. The biggest position, XIV, should be real stable, and the time premium of our SLV options should start to depriciate quickly now that we are basically into June and they expire in Oct.
Account Details
Cash = $113,020
Liabilities = 30*3.40 = 10,200; 10*5.00 = 5,000; 10,200 + 5000 = 15,200
Total = 113,020 - 15,200 = $97,820
We are still down $2,180 for the year (2.18%), but up 2.5% since last month, and it's not like we are missing an epic rally in the general market. Just need this silver price to find some legs are start marching higher again and we'll be sitting pretty in no time.
It's been a while since I've been updating this space. I have still been watching the markets diligently and need to be more disciplined in getting this updated.
The markets have not been rewarding our trades as of late, but this seems to have changed in the last few days. The SLW trade is still under some pressure, but LULU has been doing exactly as I thought it would. The options have now started to move in our favor.
I think I'm going to recomend taking a few small equity positions here. We still have a fairly large exposure with the SLV options, but our LULU trade (knock on wood) looks fairly secure here.
Recomendation.
1000 Shares of XIV. This is an ETF that tracks the VIX indicator. It is designed to move in the opposite direction that the standard VIX moves, but due to its design, profits from the difference in the futures market. It has just undergone a reverse split, and continues to climb in value. Current price is $17.55. Lets put our bid in at $17.50 to keep it simple.
1000 * 17.50 = $17,500
Next is a beaten down tech company that I think has just been hit far too hard. Not going to take a large position here, as this company certainly will have some struggles going forward. RIMM is the company I'm thinking of. With a share price of just $28.78, it has fallen by more than 80% off of it's highs. It's also got gap theory working for it, as it has 4 major gaps to fill taking it all the way back to the $80 dollar range.
Recomendation.
200 shares of RIMM. We'll put our bid in at $28.75, just a fraction below today's close of $28.78.
200 * 28.75 = $5,750
Final recomendation is another silver play. Silver has been hit hard the last few months, and the equities even more so. Silver Wheaton is still a great company, with a great business model that will do extremely well in the coming years. I have been waiting to see if it would find a bottom or not, and it seems to be forming one here in the low $30's. I would like to jump into this play from the equity side of things, as opposed to options like we have on SLV. Just an quick buy here, starting position. If it drops further with SLV, great we can load up the truck and get some more.
Recomendation.
100 shares of SLW. We can put our bid in at $33.00, as it does tend to move a fair bit during the day, and its closing price was $33.33 today shouldn't be out of reach for such a bid.
100 * 33.00 = $3,300.
All in all we may be spending $26,550 (17,500 + 5,750 + 3,300) at the open tomorrow. The biggest position, XIV, should be real stable, and the time premium of our SLV options should start to depriciate quickly now that we are basically into June and they expire in Oct.
Account Details
Cash = $113,020
Liabilities = 30*3.40 = 10,200; 10*5.00 = 5,000; 10,200 + 5000 = 15,200
Total = 113,020 - 15,200 = $97,820
We are still down $2,180 for the year (2.18%), but up 2.5% since last month, and it's not like we are missing an epic rally in the general market. Just need this silver price to find some legs are start marching higher again and we'll be sitting pretty in no time.
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
Again, Tuesday around lunch time. Nothing new to report. SLV is still looking real strong, although it does need to overtake it's 50 day moving average at some point. Every attempt so far has resulted in heavy selling. As soon as it does, we could see a quick move higher.
LULU got smacked late last week. I looked around for some news and was unable to find anything specific to LULU. Looked like it was related to consumer sentiment and other clothing companies posting poor results. I think the market is just underestimating the silly things girls do for lulu clothes. They're taking over.
Just playin the big trends. Be right and hold tight.
Account Details
Cash = $113,020
Liabilities = 30*2.76 = 8,280; 10*9.50 = 9,500; 8,280 + 9,500 = 17,780
Total = 113,020 - 17,780 = $95,240
Still leaves us with a $4,760 decline (4.76%) but a full 1% gain from last week. Like I said above, be right and sit tight.
LULU got smacked late last week. I looked around for some news and was unable to find anything specific to LULU. Looked like it was related to consumer sentiment and other clothing companies posting poor results. I think the market is just underestimating the silly things girls do for lulu clothes. They're taking over.
Just playin the big trends. Be right and hold tight.
Account Details
Cash = $113,020
Liabilities = 30*2.76 = 8,280; 10*9.50 = 9,500; 8,280 + 9,500 = 17,780
Total = 113,020 - 17,780 = $95,240
Still leaves us with a $4,760 decline (4.76%) but a full 1% gain from last week. Like I said above, be right and sit tight.
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
Tuesday morning. Have been queit, just watching the markets. I took some positions early, and it probably seems like I'm stumped, but I'm very content to just sit back and wait. The market seems awefuly toppy to me, and I just don't have a real conviction to where it's headed next. Because of this, I am happy to sit on a boatload of cash, and really not leverage myself too much in the options markets. I will do very well if the original bets pay off, as I'm still very confident we will. Our porfolio should show some gains compared to last week.
Still watching RIMM. It's now retesting it's lows around $42 dollars, if it holds, I may jump in.
Account Details
Cash = $113,020
Liabilities = 30*3.60 = 10,800; 10*8.10 = 8,100; 10,800 + 8,100 = 18,900
Total = 113,020 - 18,900 = $94,120
Still leaves us in a hole, $5,880, a %5.88 decline, but an improvement from late last week.
Still watching RIMM. It's now retesting it's lows around $42 dollars, if it holds, I may jump in.
Account Details
Cash = $113,020
Liabilities = 30*3.60 = 10,800; 10*8.10 = 8,100; 10,800 + 8,100 = 18,900
Total = 113,020 - 18,900 = $94,120
Still leaves us in a hole, $5,880, a %5.88 decline, but an improvement from late last week.
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
Wednesday morning. Haven't been updated in a while, but there really hasn't been much to say as of late. The silver price is bouncing around something fierce still. I had a fairly strong feeling it was gonna dip again and test the $27 range, and it still might, but the movement off of yesterdays lows seems real convincing to me. Nice, orderly, and consistent, so we shall see.
The action in LULU seems great to me, the premiums for our options were moving in the wrong direction for us, so clearly we missed 20-30% on said premium but I still think our trade is good. And as such, LULU is up strong on little news today, taking our options further out of the money. Perfect, we'll keep our $7 premium.
I may introduce my first straight up stock buy recommendation. RIMM is a company who I'm not 100% fond of, but that can't get in the way of objective thinking on value. This company has gotten hammered. And then after that, it got smacked again and again. They still make a great product, and their technology is sound. They are up against some of the fiercest competition around, but I think that that is more than reflected in their share price. Something I'm going to keep an eye on.
Account Details
Cash = $113,020
Liabilities = 30*4.25 = 12,750; 10*8.30 = 8,300; 12,750 + 8,300 = 21,050
Total = 113,020 - 21,050 = $91,970
Currently leaves us sitting on a $8,030 unrealized loss, but seems to be moving in the right direction.
The action in LULU seems great to me, the premiums for our options were moving in the wrong direction for us, so clearly we missed 20-30% on said premium but I still think our trade is good. And as such, LULU is up strong on little news today, taking our options further out of the money. Perfect, we'll keep our $7 premium.
I may introduce my first straight up stock buy recommendation. RIMM is a company who I'm not 100% fond of, but that can't get in the way of objective thinking on value. This company has gotten hammered. And then after that, it got smacked again and again. They still make a great product, and their technology is sound. They are up against some of the fiercest competition around, but I think that that is more than reflected in their share price. Something I'm going to keep an eye on.
Account Details
Cash = $113,020
Liabilities = 30*4.25 = 12,750; 10*8.30 = 8,300; 12,750 + 8,300 = 21,050
Total = 113,020 - 21,050 = $91,970
Currently leaves us sitting on a $8,030 unrealized loss, but seems to be moving in the right direction.
Thursday, May 12, 2011
Thursday afternoon here. The commidites market has gotten tempermental again, with some wild swings in both directions. I won't go into great detail, but silver got hammered. But it took the lickin, and it's still tickin, because it's back, and has even moved positive for the day, close to a 3 dollar move off the lows this morning. Good day traders must be loving SLV, they'll be taking millions out of it if they know what they are doing (lucky).
As for our positions, the volitility is definitely huring our options prices, but the time decay will slowly start working in our favor, as SLV is still trading above what our effective entry price (if it were to close out october at these prices, the options would be put to us however).
As for LULU, the shares seem to have found serious support in the upper 90's, and appear content to bounce around this area. Again, with time on our side, bounce LULU, bounce around all you like.
Account Details
Cash = $113,020
Liabilities = 30*4.60 = 13,800; 10*8.00 = 8,000; 13,800 + 8,000 = 21,800.
Total = 113,020 - 21,800 = $91,220
currently sitting on a $8,780 dollar loss, or 8.78%. Still not feeling the love, but give it some time. Still very early. The LULU trade should start moving in our favor slowly.
As for our positions, the volitility is definitely huring our options prices, but the time decay will slowly start working in our favor, as SLV is still trading above what our effective entry price (if it were to close out october at these prices, the options would be put to us however).
As for LULU, the shares seem to have found serious support in the upper 90's, and appear content to bounce around this area. Again, with time on our side, bounce LULU, bounce around all you like.
Account Details
Cash = $113,020
Liabilities = 30*4.60 = 13,800; 10*8.00 = 8,000; 13,800 + 8,000 = 21,800.
Total = 113,020 - 21,800 = $91,220
currently sitting on a $8,780 dollar loss, or 8.78%. Still not feeling the love, but give it some time. Still very early. The LULU trade should start moving in our favor slowly.
Monday, May 9, 2011
It's Monday morning, and things seem to be back to normal with the commodities. Silver and Oil have both found support and have held nicely, gold has been fairly steady, up a little this morning as well.
Let's take a little advantage of this move. Add to some of our positions. The Oct'11 SLV Puts @ 35 still look great, and we'll get a substantial premium because of how far SLV fell last week. Lets add 50% more to our position.
10 OCT'11 SLV 35 Puts @ Market of $3.75.
This will bring in a premium of $3,750, and represent a $31.25 actual aquiring share price if the options are put to us.
Added to our original position it will look like this.
20 Contracts at 1.36 = 2,720
10 Contracts at 3.75 = 3,750
-----
= 6,470/30
= 2.16 per contract (a 32.84 entry price).
The LULU trade looks fine, even though our options are slightly under water, the share action seems fine to me. Lets just be patient and let the time decay do all the work for us.
Account Details
Cash = 109,270 + 3,750 = $113,020
Liabilities = 30*3.80 = 11,400; 10*8.50 = 8,500; 11,400 + 8,500 = 19,900.
Total = 113,020 - 19,900 = $93,120
currently sitting on a $6,680 dollar loss, or 6.68%. Not fun, but considering the rout we took, I think it's fine, and we're in an even stronger position to perform well going forward.
Let's take a little advantage of this move. Add to some of our positions. The Oct'11 SLV Puts @ 35 still look great, and we'll get a substantial premium because of how far SLV fell last week. Lets add 50% more to our position.
10 OCT'11 SLV 35 Puts @ Market of $3.75.
This will bring in a premium of $3,750, and represent a $31.25 actual aquiring share price if the options are put to us.
Added to our original position it will look like this.
20 Contracts at 1.36 = 2,720
10 Contracts at 3.75 = 3,750
-----
= 6,470/30
= 2.16 per contract (a 32.84 entry price).
The LULU trade looks fine, even though our options are slightly under water, the share action seems fine to me. Lets just be patient and let the time decay do all the work for us.
Account Details
Cash = 109,270 + 3,750 = $113,020
Liabilities = 30*3.80 = 11,400; 10*8.50 = 8,500; 11,400 + 8,500 = 19,900.
Total = 113,020 - 19,900 = $93,120
currently sitting on a $6,680 dollar loss, or 6.68%. Not fun, but considering the rout we took, I think it's fine, and we're in an even stronger position to perform well going forward.
Friday, May 6, 2011
No new trades, just here for a quick update.
It's Friday afternoon. All eyes have been on the commodities rout that took place over the last 48 hours or so, and last week for silver. Going to certainly look to add to positions over the weekend, some serious selling going on and I wan't to scoop up something cheap cheap.
20 Oct'11 SLV 35 Puts = 4.95ask = -495*2 = -$9900.00
10 Jan'12 LULU 80 Puts = 8.70ask = -$8700.00
Cash = $109,720.00
Liabilities = 9900 + 8700 = $18600
Total = 109,720 - 18,600 = $91,120
currently sitting on a loss of $8,800 or 8.8%. Terrible timing on the SLV options, but looking to add to the position, this rout has been of mighty proportions. LULU sitting fine, a little correction but nothing to think twice about.
It's Friday afternoon. All eyes have been on the commodities rout that took place over the last 48 hours or so, and last week for silver. Going to certainly look to add to positions over the weekend, some serious selling going on and I wan't to scoop up something cheap cheap.
20 Oct'11 SLV 35 Puts = 4.95ask = -495*2 = -$9900.00
10 Jan'12 LULU 80 Puts = 8.70ask = -$8700.00
Cash = $109,720.00
Liabilities = 9900 + 8700 = $18600
Total = 109,720 - 18,600 = $91,120
currently sitting on a loss of $8,800 or 8.8%. Terrible timing on the SLV options, but looking to add to the position, this rout has been of mighty proportions. LULU sitting fine, a little correction but nothing to think twice about.
Saturday, April 30, 2011
Thursday, April 28, 2011
Been gone for a couple days, but have been trying to keep an eye on the markets.
Everything is starting to pan out. Silver had a big correction (just shy of 10% in 24hours!!). It has since stabilized, and shot right back up, seems pretty straight forward that this is going higher.
The thing I like about this move, is that gold is actually confirming the move. It has been setting new, all time highs the last couple days, sitting at $1534.80 as I write. This is in my mind is very important. Crude contracts are still sky high at $113.74, and the dollar is in the dumps at 73.05 on the trade weighted average.
Nothing has changed. Big Ben (Bernanke) has spoken, and has said nothing to change the status quo. Cheap, easy money, pounding of the fist to change something, but giving no indication he has the fortitude to pull the trigger to enact a change (or, some may argue the intelegence to see what needs to be done).
All in all, same trends to watch. Metals and commodities up, stock market drifting higher, dollar down. Treasury yields will need to start rising, but have been mighty resiliant thus far. They will be the ultimate driver of this mess, but not showing any signs of waking up yet.
LULU, our lone stock trade has bounced around a little, dropping into the $98's briefly, but has since rebounded, is currently back over the round $100 mark. Let it keep this up and we'll keep our entire premium.
No crazy ideas for a trade at this time, sitting and waiting for now.
Porfolio Updates.
SLV $35 Oct'11 Puts (20 contracts) - $1.27 ask, = $2,540 to cover.
LULU $80 Jan'12 Puts (10 contracts) - $7.50 ask, = $7,500 to cover.
Cash = $109,720
Liabilities = 2540 + 7500 = $10040
Total = 109,720 - 10040 = $99680
currently sitting on a loss of $320 off of $100,000, or 0.32%. I'm not concerned.
Everything is starting to pan out. Silver had a big correction (just shy of 10% in 24hours!!). It has since stabilized, and shot right back up, seems pretty straight forward that this is going higher.
The thing I like about this move, is that gold is actually confirming the move. It has been setting new, all time highs the last couple days, sitting at $1534.80 as I write. This is in my mind is very important. Crude contracts are still sky high at $113.74, and the dollar is in the dumps at 73.05 on the trade weighted average.
Nothing has changed. Big Ben (Bernanke) has spoken, and has said nothing to change the status quo. Cheap, easy money, pounding of the fist to change something, but giving no indication he has the fortitude to pull the trigger to enact a change (or, some may argue the intelegence to see what needs to be done).
All in all, same trends to watch. Metals and commodities up, stock market drifting higher, dollar down. Treasury yields will need to start rising, but have been mighty resiliant thus far. They will be the ultimate driver of this mess, but not showing any signs of waking up yet.
LULU, our lone stock trade has bounced around a little, dropping into the $98's briefly, but has since rebounded, is currently back over the round $100 mark. Let it keep this up and we'll keep our entire premium.
No crazy ideas for a trade at this time, sitting and waiting for now.
Porfolio Updates.
SLV $35 Oct'11 Puts (20 contracts) - $1.27 ask, = $2,540 to cover.
LULU $80 Jan'12 Puts (10 contracts) - $7.50 ask, = $7,500 to cover.
Cash = $109,720
Liabilities = 2540 + 7500 = $10040
Total = 109,720 - 10040 = $99680
currently sitting on a loss of $320 off of $100,000, or 0.32%. I'm not concerned.
Monday, April 25, 2011
Yikes.
Silver is all over the map today. Huge move in the overnight hours, and then an even bigger move at the start of the NY day, this time to the down side. At around 11 or so, it's found a bottom, and is retracing the downward move in another violent move upwards.
Option prices are all on a roller coaster ride today, so I won't put a quote up for our holdings, as it'll change by the time I hit the send button.
Even though we did have a bit of a pullback here intra-day, it's looking like we'll close in the positive for SLV, which means 8 straight up days, and 16 of the last 18. This is all fine and dandy for our Put position, but it's making it difficult to find an entry point to play the long side. Something to keep an eye on.
Also keeping an eye on LULU. Just fantastic earnings growth. And a great product with what appears to be an unblemished track record of beating the streets earnings. All things an investor loves. Because of this, I think I'm going to take a large Put position again. The premiums are pretty high, much higher than I thought they might be, so lets jump on them.
Again, we'll be selling puts. 10 LULU Jan'12 $80.00 Puts @ current bid of $7.00. We'll raise 10*700 = $7000 for the options, and be exposed to a worst case scenario of $80,000 in margin. (10*100*$80.00). We will have an entry point of $73.00 currently 30.7% below the current price of 100.97.
GLD, is also clearly is another thing to keep an eye on.
That's it for today.
Portfolio updates.
+$7000 in cash = $109,720
Open Positions = 20 $35 SLV Oct'11 Puts, 10 $80 LULU Jan'12 Puts
Silver is all over the map today. Huge move in the overnight hours, and then an even bigger move at the start of the NY day, this time to the down side. At around 11 or so, it's found a bottom, and is retracing the downward move in another violent move upwards.
Option prices are all on a roller coaster ride today, so I won't put a quote up for our holdings, as it'll change by the time I hit the send button.
Even though we did have a bit of a pullback here intra-day, it's looking like we'll close in the positive for SLV, which means 8 straight up days, and 16 of the last 18. This is all fine and dandy for our Put position, but it's making it difficult to find an entry point to play the long side. Something to keep an eye on.
Also keeping an eye on LULU. Just fantastic earnings growth. And a great product with what appears to be an unblemished track record of beating the streets earnings. All things an investor loves. Because of this, I think I'm going to take a large Put position again. The premiums are pretty high, much higher than I thought they might be, so lets jump on them.
Again, we'll be selling puts. 10 LULU Jan'12 $80.00 Puts @ current bid of $7.00. We'll raise 10*700 = $7000 for the options, and be exposed to a worst case scenario of $80,000 in margin. (10*100*$80.00). We will have an entry point of $73.00 currently 30.7% below the current price of 100.97.
GLD, is also clearly is another thing to keep an eye on.
That's it for today.
Portfolio updates.
+$7000 in cash = $109,720
Open Positions = 20 $35 SLV Oct'11 Puts, 10 $80 LULU Jan'12 Puts
Saturday, April 23, 2011
UPDATE.
SO far so good on our first trade.
SLV has gone from $44.02 to $45.54 and the Oct'11 $35.00 SLV Puts are currently trading at $1.24 for an 8.8% gain in just two trading days. (Friday was closed due to Easter). I'm hoping to make much more than 8.8% on this trade, as it is inherently risky, but we'll keep a close eye on it. No gain is real until it's been closed.
As far as the silver trade is concerned, man this looks like it could really turn into a moon shot. Everyone must say that during bubbles, and there's no doubt silver has gone vertical, but it just doesn't feel like the end to me. It honestly feels like there is much more room to go here, it is not slowing down. There are some metrics starting to flash warning signs, such as RSI, and just a visual on any chart pulled out to more than a couple weeks is a picture perfect painting of a frothy market. But other indicators, such as sentiment, supply/demand pictures, and the possibility of a massive short position by the large bullion banks all could add up to a run of epic proportions. Just played some poker this week, not one person at my table over the course of two days knew anything about silver. When silver really goes, everyone will be watching it. Anything in public news these days is all about the top, how these prices can't be sustained. Well as we all know, whether that is even the case or not, any market can stay irrational a long time, a lot longer than most can stay solvent.
So for now, I'm going to do a little more research, and keep a real close eye on it. Even though I'm late to the game, I may still try to play this to the upside.
Portfolio Update.
Cash = $102,720
Open Positions
- 20 Oct'11 35.00 SLV Puts (-$2,480)
Open Orders
- N/A
Total = 102,720-2480 = $100,240.00
SO far so good on our first trade.
SLV has gone from $44.02 to $45.54 and the Oct'11 $35.00 SLV Puts are currently trading at $1.24 for an 8.8% gain in just two trading days. (Friday was closed due to Easter). I'm hoping to make much more than 8.8% on this trade, as it is inherently risky, but we'll keep a close eye on it. No gain is real until it's been closed.
As far as the silver trade is concerned, man this looks like it could really turn into a moon shot. Everyone must say that during bubbles, and there's no doubt silver has gone vertical, but it just doesn't feel like the end to me. It honestly feels like there is much more room to go here, it is not slowing down. There are some metrics starting to flash warning signs, such as RSI, and just a visual on any chart pulled out to more than a couple weeks is a picture perfect painting of a frothy market. But other indicators, such as sentiment, supply/demand pictures, and the possibility of a massive short position by the large bullion banks all could add up to a run of epic proportions. Just played some poker this week, not one person at my table over the course of two days knew anything about silver. When silver really goes, everyone will be watching it. Anything in public news these days is all about the top, how these prices can't be sustained. Well as we all know, whether that is even the case or not, any market can stay irrational a long time, a lot longer than most can stay solvent.
So for now, I'm going to do a little more research, and keep a real close eye on it. Even though I'm late to the game, I may still try to play this to the upside.
Portfolio Update.
Cash = $102,720
Open Positions
- 20 Oct'11 35.00 SLV Puts (-$2,480)
Open Orders
- N/A
Total = 102,720-2480 = $100,240.00
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
First Trade.
This is going to be a bit of a gamble, but it seems like I've missed the silver trade, so I need in somehow.
Lets sell some SLV Puts.
Trade --> Sell 20 SLV OCT'11 35.00 Puts @ Market ($1.36)
Info --> We will receive $2720 for the sale, and require $70,000 in margin to meet the requirements of the 20*100 SLV Share contract at $35.00. Ideally we hold these until expiration, but if silver flattens out, or looks ripe to short, maybe we'll sell these a little early. Worst case scenario we pick up 2000 SLV shares for an average cost of 33.64 (23.58% below market of $44.02)
Account Details
Cash = $100,000 + 2,720 = 102,720.
Open Positions
- 20 Oct'11 35.00 SLV Puts
Open Orders
N/A
This is going to be a bit of a gamble, but it seems like I've missed the silver trade, so I need in somehow.
Lets sell some SLV Puts.
Trade --> Sell 20 SLV OCT'11 35.00 Puts @ Market ($1.36)
Info --> We will receive $2720 for the sale, and require $70,000 in margin to meet the requirements of the 20*100 SLV Share contract at $35.00. Ideally we hold these until expiration, but if silver flattens out, or looks ripe to short, maybe we'll sell these a little early. Worst case scenario we pick up 2000 SLV shares for an average cost of 33.64 (23.58% below market of $44.02)
Account Details
Cash = $100,000 + 2,720 = 102,720.
Open Positions
- 20 Oct'11 35.00 SLV Puts
Open Orders
N/A
Investment Fund
Ok. I've been keeping a bit of a log about trades I like on my computer. It's been doing ok, and I'm motivated to make this real. You'll see from the post dates when exactly trades were recommended. I will be taking a lot of these trades with my own money, so that's my disclaimer. I have no investment credentials, and I take no responsibility for anything said or results garnered from my 'advice'. This is free. You get what you pay for.
Fund will be set up with $100,000 USD. Because I'm from Canada, I'll include that is the same as $95,760 CAD.
Fund will be set up with $100,000 USD. Because I'm from Canada, I'll include that is the same as $95,760 CAD.
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