Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Wednesday evening here, after the markets have closed in NY for the day.
It's been a while since I've been updating this space. I have still been watching the markets diligently and need to be more disciplined in getting this updated.
The markets have not been rewarding our trades as of late, but this seems to have changed in the last few days. The SLW trade is still under some pressure, but LULU has been doing exactly as I thought it would. The options have now started to move in our favor.
I think I'm going to recomend taking a few small equity positions here. We still have a fairly large exposure with the SLV options, but our LULU trade (knock on wood) looks fairly secure here.
Recomendation.
1000 Shares of XIV. This is an ETF that tracks the VIX indicator. It is designed to move in the opposite direction that the standard VIX moves, but due to its design, profits from the difference in the futures market. It has just undergone a reverse split, and continues to climb in value. Current price is $17.55. Lets put our bid in at $17.50 to keep it simple.
1000 * 17.50 = $17,500
Next is a beaten down tech company that I think has just been hit far too hard. Not going to take a large position here, as this company certainly will have some struggles going forward. RIMM is the company I'm thinking of. With a share price of just $28.78, it has fallen by more than 80% off of it's highs. It's also got gap theory working for it, as it has 4 major gaps to fill taking it all the way back to the $80 dollar range.
Recomendation.
200 shares of RIMM. We'll put our bid in at $28.75, just a fraction below today's close of $28.78.
200 * 28.75 = $5,750
Final recomendation is another silver play. Silver has been hit hard the last few months, and the equities even more so. Silver Wheaton is still a great company, with a great business model that will do extremely well in the coming years. I have been waiting to see if it would find a bottom or not, and it seems to be forming one here in the low $30's. I would like to jump into this play from the equity side of things, as opposed to options like we have on SLV. Just an quick buy here, starting position. If it drops further with SLV, great we can load up the truck and get some more.
Recomendation.
100 shares of SLW. We can put our bid in at $33.00, as it does tend to move a fair bit during the day, and its closing price was $33.33 today shouldn't be out of reach for such a bid.
100 * 33.00 = $3,300.
All in all we may be spending $26,550 (17,500 + 5,750 + 3,300) at the open tomorrow. The biggest position, XIV, should be real stable, and the time premium of our SLV options should start to depriciate quickly now that we are basically into June and they expire in Oct.
Account Details
Cash = $113,020
Liabilities = 30*3.40 = 10,200; 10*5.00 = 5,000; 10,200 + 5000 = 15,200
Total = 113,020 - 15,200 = $97,820
We are still down $2,180 for the year (2.18%), but up 2.5% since last month, and it's not like we are missing an epic rally in the general market. Just need this silver price to find some legs are start marching higher again and we'll be sitting pretty in no time.