Well, the markets certainly aren't boring. The big indecies are bouncing like mad, up, down, all over the place. I'm sure they'd move in 3D right now if they could.
With all of that being said, the big picture hasn't changed. Europe is still proving to be a mess, and that's just the beginning of the rest of the western world. Asia seems to be slowing a little, but we've also known this for some time. Silver has gotten caught up as a base metal, but it won't last.
Portfolio update.
Account Details
Cash = $58,305
Assets
--> XIV -- 2000*5.80 = 11,600 [ 2000@14.75 =2 9,500]
--> RIMM -- 200*24.40 = 4,880 [ 200@28.75 = 5,750]
--> GDXJ -- 400*29.29 = 11,716 [ 400@33.56 = 13,425]
--> SLW -- 400*30.91 = 12,364 [ 400@34.55 = 13,820]
= 11,600 + 4,880+ 11,716 + 12,364
= $40,560
Total Assets= 58,305 + 40,560= $98,865
Liabilities
--> OCT'11 SLW $35 PUTS = 30*4.55 = 13,650
--> JAN'12 LULU $40 PUTS = 20*3.10 = 6,200
--> JAN'12 RIMM $27.50 CALLS = 2*2.86 = 572
--> JAN'13 GLD $160 PUTS = 5*23.30 = 11,650
= 13,650 + 6,200 + 572 + 11,650
= $32,072
Total= 98,865 - 32,072
= 66,793
Currently down a whopping 33,207 dollars. But our positions are still solid. The SLV options are worrisome, but that is just terrible luck, and there is still a full 2 weeks until expiry, and with the way silver moves, anything is possible. We'll hold and trust the market gets back to a more normal pricing mechanism quickly.
Looking to possibly add to our GLD option position, as premiums have almost doubled. This is why we started with just a 5 contract position.
Thursday, October 6, 2011
Thursday, September 22, 2011
Wow.
One word.
What an open. The DOW and S&P down ~3.5%, after falling 1% yesterday. Commidities are just getting hammered. Their respective mining companies getting hit even harder.
Lets scoop up a couple more shares in securities we already own. Just a dabble.
100 SLW @ 37.20 = 3,720 = market
100 GDXJ @ 32.00 = 3,200 (Currently trading at 32.05, hoping to fill momentarily).
This will leave us with a total of 400 SLW, and 400 GDXJ shares.
Sit tight and ride this out. If something needs to change I will post it here.
(PS. GDXJ just filled @ 32.00).
One word.
What an open. The DOW and S&P down ~3.5%, after falling 1% yesterday. Commidities are just getting hammered. Their respective mining companies getting hit even harder.
Lets scoop up a couple more shares in securities we already own. Just a dabble.
100 SLW @ 37.20 = 3,720 = market
100 GDXJ @ 32.00 = 3,200 (Currently trading at 32.05, hoping to fill momentarily).
This will leave us with a total of 400 SLW, and 400 GDXJ shares.
Sit tight and ride this out. If something needs to change I will post it here.
(PS. GDXJ just filled @ 32.00).
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
Well it has been a while since I have had time to update this blog, but that I have still paid close attention to the markets, and am constatnly thinking of ways to profit.
Our XIV position has really taken a hit, but seems to have stabilized here. I'm torn. Normally I'd like to double down, buy more shares, and ride some serious profits to the upside. But I'm hesitant in this situation, because I still think volatility can move higher at any moment, and the fund has taken a serious hit here in the last couple months. We are already invested, so lets just sit back and let things play as they should. Also, I'm not against leaving a fair bit of cash on the sidelines still, as this market still seems directionless. It needs to go lower, but there are some serious forces out there doing everything they can to make sure that doesn't happen.
Commodities have held up, albeit down a little in the last few days. Both our options positions are doing exactly as they should, with both well above our strike price, and time continuing to decay.
Our position in RIMM has also taken a hit, but we knew this company was in trouble. It's just purely a play that the market has punished this company too much. Their technology is still sound, and I'm confident they are no where near throwing in the towell, so we'll hold. However, I am going to go back to the options market to try and lower our entry cost. May as well derive some income from sitting on the position.
New recomendations.
Sell 2 JAN'12 27.50 RIMM CALL for the bid price of 1.65 per contract, which will raise $330 total.
This will limit our upside in RIMM to basically break even, as our entry point will be moved to $27.10 (28.75 - 1.65), and our exit point if the option is exercised will be 27.50 (a total 0.40 gain). But if the stock stays down in its current range of $23, we'll just collect the premium and be able to re-evaluate things in the new year.
Sell 5 JAN'13 160.00 GLD PUTS for the bid price of 14.00 per contract, which will raise $7000 total.
More than a year from now, this should be free monies.
BUY 100 GDXJ shares with a bid of $36.75. This is basically a market bid, as the security is currently trading at $36.76. I expect this will fill as I write this. Yup. Filled at $36.75. This will cost us a total of $3,675.00.
Account Details.
CASH
= 61,570 + 330 + 7,000 - 3,675 = 65,225
SECURITIES
-->XIV -- 2000 * 7.13 = 14,260 [2000@14.75=29,500]
-->RIMM -- 200 * 23.14 = 4,628 [ 200@28.75= 5,750]
-->GDXJ -- 300 * 36.72 = 11,016 [300@34.08=10,225]
-->SLW -- 300 * 41.12 = 12,336 [ 300@33.67=10,100]
= 14,260 + 4,628 + 11,016 + 12,336
= 42,240
Liabilities
--OCT'11 SLV $35 Puts = 30*0.56 = 1,680
--JAN'12 LULU $40 Puts = 20*2.35 = 4,700
--JAN'12 RIMM $27.50 Calls = 2*1.64 = 328
--JAN'13 GLD $160 Puts = 5*14.40 = 7,200
= 1,680 + 4,700 + 328 + 7,200
= $13,908
Total
= 65,225 + 42,240 - 13,908
= $93,557 (-6,443).
We are currently sitting on a 6.4% loss, or a total of 6,443 dollars. Not happy about this, as the fund has been in existence for 5 months now exactly. That's more than 15% on a yearly basis if extrapolated out. Yikes. The XIV position is really hurting the portfolio right now, but it has rebounded from it's lows, and seems to be functioning a litte more along the lines we originaly thought it would as of late. I'm prepared to hold this a little longer and see where it takes us.
The rest is doing fine, with everything doing exactly as it should. This has certainly helped offset the XIV loss, but you're only as good as your weakest link, so we need to live with it. And to be honest, when compared to the DJIA since fund inception, we are basically dead even. Surprising, I know, as nothing we've done is designed to mimick the market, but it is what it is.
Our XIV position has really taken a hit, but seems to have stabilized here. I'm torn. Normally I'd like to double down, buy more shares, and ride some serious profits to the upside. But I'm hesitant in this situation, because I still think volatility can move higher at any moment, and the fund has taken a serious hit here in the last couple months. We are already invested, so lets just sit back and let things play as they should. Also, I'm not against leaving a fair bit of cash on the sidelines still, as this market still seems directionless. It needs to go lower, but there are some serious forces out there doing everything they can to make sure that doesn't happen.
Commodities have held up, albeit down a little in the last few days. Both our options positions are doing exactly as they should, with both well above our strike price, and time continuing to decay.
Our position in RIMM has also taken a hit, but we knew this company was in trouble. It's just purely a play that the market has punished this company too much. Their technology is still sound, and I'm confident they are no where near throwing in the towell, so we'll hold. However, I am going to go back to the options market to try and lower our entry cost. May as well derive some income from sitting on the position.
New recomendations.
Sell 2 JAN'12 27.50 RIMM CALL for the bid price of 1.65 per contract, which will raise $330 total.
This will limit our upside in RIMM to basically break even, as our entry point will be moved to $27.10 (28.75 - 1.65), and our exit point if the option is exercised will be 27.50 (a total 0.40 gain). But if the stock stays down in its current range of $23, we'll just collect the premium and be able to re-evaluate things in the new year.
Sell 5 JAN'13 160.00 GLD PUTS for the bid price of 14.00 per contract, which will raise $7000 total.
More than a year from now, this should be free monies.
BUY 100 GDXJ shares with a bid of $36.75. This is basically a market bid, as the security is currently trading at $36.76. I expect this will fill as I write this. Yup. Filled at $36.75. This will cost us a total of $3,675.00.
Account Details.
CASH
= 61,570 + 330 + 7,000 - 3,675 = 65,225
SECURITIES
-->XIV -- 2000 * 7.13 = 14,260 [2000@14.75=29,500]
-->RIMM -- 200 * 23.14 = 4,628 [ 200@28.75= 5,750]
-->GDXJ -- 300 * 36.72 = 11,016 [300@34.08=10,225]
-->SLW -- 300 * 41.12 = 12,336 [ 300@33.67=10,100]
= 14,260 + 4,628 + 11,016 + 12,336
= 42,240
Liabilities
--OCT'11 SLV $35 Puts = 30*0.56 = 1,680
--JAN'12 LULU $40 Puts = 20*2.35 = 4,700
--JAN'12 RIMM $27.50 Calls = 2*1.64 = 328
--JAN'13 GLD $160 Puts = 5*14.40 = 7,200
= 1,680 + 4,700 + 328 + 7,200
= $13,908
Total
= 65,225 + 42,240 - 13,908
= $93,557 (-6,443).
We are currently sitting on a 6.4% loss, or a total of 6,443 dollars. Not happy about this, as the fund has been in existence for 5 months now exactly. That's more than 15% on a yearly basis if extrapolated out. Yikes. The XIV position is really hurting the portfolio right now, but it has rebounded from it's lows, and seems to be functioning a litte more along the lines we originaly thought it would as of late. I'm prepared to hold this a little longer and see where it takes us.
The rest is doing fine, with everything doing exactly as it should. This has certainly helped offset the XIV loss, but you're only as good as your weakest link, so we need to live with it. And to be honest, when compared to the DJIA since fund inception, we are basically dead even. Surprising, I know, as nothing we've done is designed to mimick the market, but it is what it is.
Monday, August 15, 2011
And we're back to normal. The news agencies are talking about nothing, we've been pormised interest rates at 0 for at least another 2 years, and stocks are moving higher. Easy money right? It will be, 'till it isn't.
Nothing has changed. Big themes still fully intact.
Assets
Cash = $61,570
Equities
--> XIV -- 2000 * 10.10 = 20,200 [2000@14.75 = 29,500 ~ -9,300]
--> RIMM -- 200 * 27.11 = 5,422 [200@28.75 = 5,750 ~ -328]
--> SLW -- 300 * 38.67 = 11,601 [300@33.67 = 10,100 ~ +1,501]
--> GDXJ -- 200 * 36.03 = 7,206 [200@32.75 = 6,550 ~ +656]
= 20,200 + 5,422 + 11,601 + 7,206
= 44,429 [51,900 ~ -7,471]
Total Assets = 61,570 + 44,429= $105,999
Liabilities
Options
--> OCT'11 SLV $35 PUTS - 30 * 1.34 = 4,020 [30@2.16 = 6,470 ~ +2,450]
--> JAN'12 LULU $40 PUTS - 20 * 2.60 = 5,200 [20@3.50 = 7,000 ~ +1,800]
= 2,450 + 1,800= 9,220 [13,470 ~ +4,250]
Total Liabilities= $9,220
Total = 105,999 - 9,220= 96,779 [-3,221; -3.22%]
Still have a ways to go in recouping our losses from last week, but we certainly did better than the market in the last week. Not that I care about the market, I care about my results. And right now, I'm still down 3.22% in the last few months. Waste of time and resources. But if the markets calm down and our position in XIV turns around, we'll be sitting very pretty. Not to mention we still have lots of cash to take advantage of a big downturn. Keeping my eye on KGC. I think it's getting ready to make a multi year run soon. Will probably buy some on a another down leg, or maybe use the options market like we have in SLV. Not sure yet.
Nothing has changed. Big themes still fully intact.
Assets
Cash = $61,570
Equities
--> XIV -- 2000 * 10.10 = 20,200 [2000@14.75 = 29,500 ~ -9,300]
--> RIMM -- 200 * 27.11 = 5,422 [200@28.75 = 5,750 ~ -328]
--> SLW -- 300 * 38.67 = 11,601 [300@33.67 = 10,100 ~ +1,501]
--> GDXJ -- 200 * 36.03 = 7,206 [200@32.75 = 6,550 ~ +656]
= 20,200 + 5,422 + 11,601 + 7,206
= 44,429 [51,900 ~ -7,471]
Total Assets = 61,570 + 44,429= $105,999
Liabilities
Options
--> OCT'11 SLV $35 PUTS - 30 * 1.34 = 4,020 [30@2.16 = 6,470 ~ +2,450]
--> JAN'12 LULU $40 PUTS - 20 * 2.60 = 5,200 [20@3.50 = 7,000 ~ +1,800]
= 2,450 + 1,800= 9,220 [13,470 ~ +4,250]
Total Liabilities= $9,220
Total = 105,999 - 9,220= 96,779 [-3,221; -3.22%]
Still have a ways to go in recouping our losses from last week, but we certainly did better than the market in the last week. Not that I care about the market, I care about my results. And right now, I'm still down 3.22% in the last few months. Waste of time and resources. But if the markets calm down and our position in XIV turns around, we'll be sitting very pretty. Not to mention we still have lots of cash to take advantage of a big downturn. Keeping my eye on KGC. I think it's getting ready to make a multi year run soon. Will probably buy some on a another down leg, or maybe use the options market like we have in SLV. Not sure yet.
Tuesday, August 9, 2011
Another wild day. If you can say one thing, it's that the financial world is not boring these days. The markets are not in valuation mode, that's for sure. It's purely reactionary to different news items, and investor confidence in whether the government can 'fix' the problems. We know they can't, so filter the noise out and brace for more stormy weather.
The markets are closed, and although the values have been all over the map, at least we can give an update now. A +- 10% over the course of any day or couple days is fully possible at this time, but we're still positioned well, so I'm not gonna sweat it. Neither should you.
Assets
Cash
= $61,570
Equities
--> XIV -- 2000 * 10.72 = 21,440 [2000@14.75 = 29,500 ~ -8,060]
--> RIMM -- 200 * 23.12 = 4,624 [200@28.75 = 5,750 ~ -1,126]
--> SLW -- 300 * 35.44 = 10,632 [300@33.67 = 10,100 ~ +532]
--> GDXJ -- 200 * 33.93 = 6,786 [200@32.75 = 6,550 ~ +236]
= 21,440 + 4,624 + 10,632 + 6,786= 43,482 [51,900 ~ -8,418]
Total Assets
= 61,570 + 43,482
= $105,052
Liabilities
Options
--> OCT'11 SLV $35 PUTS - 30 * 2.53 = 7,590 [30@2.16 = 6,470 ~ -1,120]
--> JAN'12 LULU $40 PUTS - 20 * 4.40 = 8,800 [20@3.50 = 7,000 ~ -1,800]
= 7,590 + 8,800= 16,390 [13,470 ~ -2,920]
Total Liabilities= $16,390
Total
= 105,052 - 16,390
= 88,662 [-8,418 -2,920 = -11,338, -11.34%]
Big hit from last week, but we're in some solid trades. Even though our options are down, both are sitting outside the money, and their value is a direct result of the VIX skyrocketing. The VIX will come down, time decay will eat at their values, and we should reap the rewards. This would imply that we should sell some options here, which is exactly what I'm thinking of. However, I'm not going to be greedy at this point, I'm going to wait and see what the rest of the week brings. It'll be unfortunate if we miss a good oportunity to dive in, but ultimately I'd like to hunker down and keep some cash just in case there's even better opportunities in the next little bit.
The markets are closed, and although the values have been all over the map, at least we can give an update now. A +- 10% over the course of any day or couple days is fully possible at this time, but we're still positioned well, so I'm not gonna sweat it. Neither should you.
Assets
Cash
= $61,570
Equities
--> XIV -- 2000 * 10.72 = 21,440 [2000@14.75 = 29,500 ~ -8,060]
--> RIMM -- 200 * 23.12 = 4,624 [200@28.75 = 5,750 ~ -1,126]
--> SLW -- 300 * 35.44 = 10,632 [300@33.67 = 10,100 ~ +532]
--> GDXJ -- 200 * 33.93 = 6,786 [200@32.75 = 6,550 ~ +236]
= 21,440 + 4,624 + 10,632 + 6,786= 43,482 [51,900 ~ -8,418]
Total Assets
= 61,570 + 43,482
= $105,052
Liabilities
Options
--> OCT'11 SLV $35 PUTS - 30 * 2.53 = 7,590 [30@2.16 = 6,470 ~ -1,120]
--> JAN'12 LULU $40 PUTS - 20 * 4.40 = 8,800 [20@3.50 = 7,000 ~ -1,800]
= 7,590 + 8,800= 16,390 [13,470 ~ -2,920]
Total Liabilities= $16,390
Total
= 105,052 - 16,390
= 88,662 [-8,418 -2,920 = -11,338, -11.34%]
Big hit from last week, but we're in some solid trades. Even though our options are down, both are sitting outside the money, and their value is a direct result of the VIX skyrocketing. The VIX will come down, time decay will eat at their values, and we should reap the rewards. This would imply that we should sell some options here, which is exactly what I'm thinking of. However, I'm not going to be greedy at this point, I'm going to wait and see what the rest of the week brings. It'll be unfortunate if we miss a good oportunity to dive in, but ultimately I'd like to hunker down and keep some cash just in case there's even better opportunities in the next little bit.
Friday, August 5, 2011
Well, the debt limit was resolved [kinda?]. Don't have much time to write a report, but the markets got smacked yesterday, and have been on a roller coaster ride all day today.
We have a fair bit of cash still, so lets jump into this market here. This is why we hold cash.
Buy 200 Shares of SLW @ Market [$34.00] - $6,800.00
This will give us a 300 share position. Like I said, I would really like to build a sizable position in this company. I strongly believe silver is moving higher, much higer, and Silver Wheaton is perfectly position to profit from this move. This should hopefully mean larger upside to the price of silver.
The volatility has also pushed XIV way down. The size of the drop is fairly concerning, as this is a smack down of almost 50% from top to bottom. But lets gamble. Lets double down here.
1000 Shares of XIV @ Market [$12.00] - $12,000.00
The Gold and Silver juniors have also been hit real hard, in this move. So lets jump on that board and hope that this move has over reacted.
200 Shares of GDXJ @ Market [$32.75] - $6,550.00
That's it for now. Only going to update the cash and stock positions for our account, as trying to do a live update is futile in a market moving as much as it is currently.
Account Details
Assets
Cash
= 86,470 - 6,800 - 12,000 - 6,550
= $61,120
Equities
--> XIV -- 1000 + 1000 = 2000 Shares
--> RIMM -- 200 Shares
--> SLW -- 100 + 200 = 300 Shares
--> GDXJ -- 200 Shares
Total Assets --
Liabilities
Options
--> OCT'11 SLV $35 PUTS * 30
--> JAN'12 LULU $40 PUTS * 20
Total Liabilities --
Total--
We have a fair bit of cash still, so lets jump into this market here. This is why we hold cash.
Buy 200 Shares of SLW @ Market [$34.00] - $6,800.00
This will give us a 300 share position. Like I said, I would really like to build a sizable position in this company. I strongly believe silver is moving higher, much higer, and Silver Wheaton is perfectly position to profit from this move. This should hopefully mean larger upside to the price of silver.
The volatility has also pushed XIV way down. The size of the drop is fairly concerning, as this is a smack down of almost 50% from top to bottom. But lets gamble. Lets double down here.
1000 Shares of XIV @ Market [$12.00] - $12,000.00
The Gold and Silver juniors have also been hit real hard, in this move. So lets jump on that board and hope that this move has over reacted.
200 Shares of GDXJ @ Market [$32.75] - $6,550.00
That's it for now. Only going to update the cash and stock positions for our account, as trying to do a live update is futile in a market moving as much as it is currently.
Account Details
Assets
Cash
= 86,470 - 6,800 - 12,000 - 6,550
= $61,120
Equities
--> XIV -- 1000 + 1000 = 2000 Shares
--> RIMM -- 200 Shares
--> SLW -- 100 + 200 = 300 Shares
--> GDXJ -- 200 Shares
Total Assets --
Liabilities
Options
--> OCT'11 SLV $35 PUTS * 30
--> JAN'12 LULU $40 PUTS * 20
Total Liabilities --
Total--
Thursday, July 21, 2011
Thursday Day here, another week has passed, and very little seems to have changed. The US lawmakers are still squabbling over the debt ceiling, the US (and global?) economy still seems buggered (initial jobless claims rising 10K this week, German manufacturing unexpectadly fell), and the European debt crises still rages.
Interest rates in the US must start moving higher. But 'must' doesn't include a time frame. This debt situation is out of control, lending to any government, especially the world's most indebted for next to nothing makes no sense for anyone. But that being said, this economy is not well, and will not be for a long time to come. Any rise in interest rates will break any sort of legs it has to stand on its own. Something to think about anyway.
As for our portfolio, no new trades or recomendations. Just happy to sit on our positions for the time being. If SLW gets hit a little harder, may add to our position (in small chunks).
Account Details
Cash = $86,470
Assets
--> XIV -- 1000*18.09 = 18,090 [1000@17.50=17,500]
--> RIMM -- 200*27.10 = 5,420 [ 200@28.75= 5,750]
--> SLW -- 100*38.74 = 3,874 [ 100@33.00= 3,300]
= 18,090 + 5,420 + 3,874
= $27,384
Liabilities
--> OCT'11 SLW $35 PUTS = 30*1.61 = 4,830
--> JAN'12 LULU $40 PUTS = 20*1.85 = 3,700
= 4,830 + 3,700
= $8,530
Total
= 86,470 + 27,384 - 8,530
= $105,324
Another good week for us, as our portfolio was up more than 2%. We are now sitting on a $5,324 gain (5.32%) in just over one quarter. We need to get more exposure to the metals, but I haven't decided on what the best angle is. We could maybe roll our SLV options out to a further out month at a higher strike price, and continue to collect premiums. Or we could buy some call options, or stocks outright. A 5% return is great over a quarter, but when these metals go, 5% is going to be for chumps.
Interest rates in the US must start moving higher. But 'must' doesn't include a time frame. This debt situation is out of control, lending to any government, especially the world's most indebted for next to nothing makes no sense for anyone. But that being said, this economy is not well, and will not be for a long time to come. Any rise in interest rates will break any sort of legs it has to stand on its own. Something to think about anyway.
As for our portfolio, no new trades or recomendations. Just happy to sit on our positions for the time being. If SLW gets hit a little harder, may add to our position (in small chunks).
Account Details
Cash = $86,470
Assets
--> XIV -- 1000*18.09 = 18,090 [1000@17.50=17,500]
--> RIMM -- 200*27.10 = 5,420 [ 200@28.75= 5,750]
--> SLW -- 100*38.74 = 3,874 [ 100@33.00= 3,300]
= 18,090 + 5,420 + 3,874
= $27,384
Liabilities
--> OCT'11 SLW $35 PUTS = 30*1.61 = 4,830
--> JAN'12 LULU $40 PUTS = 20*1.85 = 3,700
= 4,830 + 3,700
= $8,530
Total
= 86,470 + 27,384 - 8,530
= $105,324
Another good week for us, as our portfolio was up more than 2%. We are now sitting on a $5,324 gain (5.32%) in just over one quarter. We need to get more exposure to the metals, but I haven't decided on what the best angle is. We could maybe roll our SLV options out to a further out month at a higher strike price, and continue to collect premiums. Or we could buy some call options, or stocks outright. A 5% return is great over a quarter, but when these metals go, 5% is going to be for chumps.
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