Weekend update.
The wheels are turning on both GLD and SLV option plays.
Oct'11 SLV 35 Puts = $1.43 ask = -$140.00
Jan'12 LULU 80 Puts = $7.30 ask = -$300.00
Portfolio = $-440.00
100,000 - 440.00 = $99,560, -0.44%
Saturday, April 30, 2011
Thursday, April 28, 2011
Been gone for a couple days, but have been trying to keep an eye on the markets.
Everything is starting to pan out. Silver had a big correction (just shy of 10% in 24hours!!). It has since stabilized, and shot right back up, seems pretty straight forward that this is going higher.
The thing I like about this move, is that gold is actually confirming the move. It has been setting new, all time highs the last couple days, sitting at $1534.80 as I write. This is in my mind is very important. Crude contracts are still sky high at $113.74, and the dollar is in the dumps at 73.05 on the trade weighted average.
Nothing has changed. Big Ben (Bernanke) has spoken, and has said nothing to change the status quo. Cheap, easy money, pounding of the fist to change something, but giving no indication he has the fortitude to pull the trigger to enact a change (or, some may argue the intelegence to see what needs to be done).
All in all, same trends to watch. Metals and commodities up, stock market drifting higher, dollar down. Treasury yields will need to start rising, but have been mighty resiliant thus far. They will be the ultimate driver of this mess, but not showing any signs of waking up yet.
LULU, our lone stock trade has bounced around a little, dropping into the $98's briefly, but has since rebounded, is currently back over the round $100 mark. Let it keep this up and we'll keep our entire premium.
No crazy ideas for a trade at this time, sitting and waiting for now.
Porfolio Updates.
SLV $35 Oct'11 Puts (20 contracts) - $1.27 ask, = $2,540 to cover.
LULU $80 Jan'12 Puts (10 contracts) - $7.50 ask, = $7,500 to cover.
Cash = $109,720
Liabilities = 2540 + 7500 = $10040
Total = 109,720 - 10040 = $99680
currently sitting on a loss of $320 off of $100,000, or 0.32%. I'm not concerned.
Everything is starting to pan out. Silver had a big correction (just shy of 10% in 24hours!!). It has since stabilized, and shot right back up, seems pretty straight forward that this is going higher.
The thing I like about this move, is that gold is actually confirming the move. It has been setting new, all time highs the last couple days, sitting at $1534.80 as I write. This is in my mind is very important. Crude contracts are still sky high at $113.74, and the dollar is in the dumps at 73.05 on the trade weighted average.
Nothing has changed. Big Ben (Bernanke) has spoken, and has said nothing to change the status quo. Cheap, easy money, pounding of the fist to change something, but giving no indication he has the fortitude to pull the trigger to enact a change (or, some may argue the intelegence to see what needs to be done).
All in all, same trends to watch. Metals and commodities up, stock market drifting higher, dollar down. Treasury yields will need to start rising, but have been mighty resiliant thus far. They will be the ultimate driver of this mess, but not showing any signs of waking up yet.
LULU, our lone stock trade has bounced around a little, dropping into the $98's briefly, but has since rebounded, is currently back over the round $100 mark. Let it keep this up and we'll keep our entire premium.
No crazy ideas for a trade at this time, sitting and waiting for now.
Porfolio Updates.
SLV $35 Oct'11 Puts (20 contracts) - $1.27 ask, = $2,540 to cover.
LULU $80 Jan'12 Puts (10 contracts) - $7.50 ask, = $7,500 to cover.
Cash = $109,720
Liabilities = 2540 + 7500 = $10040
Total = 109,720 - 10040 = $99680
currently sitting on a loss of $320 off of $100,000, or 0.32%. I'm not concerned.
Monday, April 25, 2011
Yikes.
Silver is all over the map today. Huge move in the overnight hours, and then an even bigger move at the start of the NY day, this time to the down side. At around 11 or so, it's found a bottom, and is retracing the downward move in another violent move upwards.
Option prices are all on a roller coaster ride today, so I won't put a quote up for our holdings, as it'll change by the time I hit the send button.
Even though we did have a bit of a pullback here intra-day, it's looking like we'll close in the positive for SLV, which means 8 straight up days, and 16 of the last 18. This is all fine and dandy for our Put position, but it's making it difficult to find an entry point to play the long side. Something to keep an eye on.
Also keeping an eye on LULU. Just fantastic earnings growth. And a great product with what appears to be an unblemished track record of beating the streets earnings. All things an investor loves. Because of this, I think I'm going to take a large Put position again. The premiums are pretty high, much higher than I thought they might be, so lets jump on them.
Again, we'll be selling puts. 10 LULU Jan'12 $80.00 Puts @ current bid of $7.00. We'll raise 10*700 = $7000 for the options, and be exposed to a worst case scenario of $80,000 in margin. (10*100*$80.00). We will have an entry point of $73.00 currently 30.7% below the current price of 100.97.
GLD, is also clearly is another thing to keep an eye on.
That's it for today.
Portfolio updates.
+$7000 in cash = $109,720
Open Positions = 20 $35 SLV Oct'11 Puts, 10 $80 LULU Jan'12 Puts
Silver is all over the map today. Huge move in the overnight hours, and then an even bigger move at the start of the NY day, this time to the down side. At around 11 or so, it's found a bottom, and is retracing the downward move in another violent move upwards.
Option prices are all on a roller coaster ride today, so I won't put a quote up for our holdings, as it'll change by the time I hit the send button.
Even though we did have a bit of a pullback here intra-day, it's looking like we'll close in the positive for SLV, which means 8 straight up days, and 16 of the last 18. This is all fine and dandy for our Put position, but it's making it difficult to find an entry point to play the long side. Something to keep an eye on.
Also keeping an eye on LULU. Just fantastic earnings growth. And a great product with what appears to be an unblemished track record of beating the streets earnings. All things an investor loves. Because of this, I think I'm going to take a large Put position again. The premiums are pretty high, much higher than I thought they might be, so lets jump on them.
Again, we'll be selling puts. 10 LULU Jan'12 $80.00 Puts @ current bid of $7.00. We'll raise 10*700 = $7000 for the options, and be exposed to a worst case scenario of $80,000 in margin. (10*100*$80.00). We will have an entry point of $73.00 currently 30.7% below the current price of 100.97.
GLD, is also clearly is another thing to keep an eye on.
That's it for today.
Portfolio updates.
+$7000 in cash = $109,720
Open Positions = 20 $35 SLV Oct'11 Puts, 10 $80 LULU Jan'12 Puts
Saturday, April 23, 2011
UPDATE.
SO far so good on our first trade.
SLV has gone from $44.02 to $45.54 and the Oct'11 $35.00 SLV Puts are currently trading at $1.24 for an 8.8% gain in just two trading days. (Friday was closed due to Easter). I'm hoping to make much more than 8.8% on this trade, as it is inherently risky, but we'll keep a close eye on it. No gain is real until it's been closed.
As far as the silver trade is concerned, man this looks like it could really turn into a moon shot. Everyone must say that during bubbles, and there's no doubt silver has gone vertical, but it just doesn't feel like the end to me. It honestly feels like there is much more room to go here, it is not slowing down. There are some metrics starting to flash warning signs, such as RSI, and just a visual on any chart pulled out to more than a couple weeks is a picture perfect painting of a frothy market. But other indicators, such as sentiment, supply/demand pictures, and the possibility of a massive short position by the large bullion banks all could add up to a run of epic proportions. Just played some poker this week, not one person at my table over the course of two days knew anything about silver. When silver really goes, everyone will be watching it. Anything in public news these days is all about the top, how these prices can't be sustained. Well as we all know, whether that is even the case or not, any market can stay irrational a long time, a lot longer than most can stay solvent.
So for now, I'm going to do a little more research, and keep a real close eye on it. Even though I'm late to the game, I may still try to play this to the upside.
Portfolio Update.
Cash = $102,720
Open Positions
- 20 Oct'11 35.00 SLV Puts (-$2,480)
Open Orders
- N/A
Total = 102,720-2480 = $100,240.00
SO far so good on our first trade.
SLV has gone from $44.02 to $45.54 and the Oct'11 $35.00 SLV Puts are currently trading at $1.24 for an 8.8% gain in just two trading days. (Friday was closed due to Easter). I'm hoping to make much more than 8.8% on this trade, as it is inherently risky, but we'll keep a close eye on it. No gain is real until it's been closed.
As far as the silver trade is concerned, man this looks like it could really turn into a moon shot. Everyone must say that during bubbles, and there's no doubt silver has gone vertical, but it just doesn't feel like the end to me. It honestly feels like there is much more room to go here, it is not slowing down. There are some metrics starting to flash warning signs, such as RSI, and just a visual on any chart pulled out to more than a couple weeks is a picture perfect painting of a frothy market. But other indicators, such as sentiment, supply/demand pictures, and the possibility of a massive short position by the large bullion banks all could add up to a run of epic proportions. Just played some poker this week, not one person at my table over the course of two days knew anything about silver. When silver really goes, everyone will be watching it. Anything in public news these days is all about the top, how these prices can't be sustained. Well as we all know, whether that is even the case or not, any market can stay irrational a long time, a lot longer than most can stay solvent.
So for now, I'm going to do a little more research, and keep a real close eye on it. Even though I'm late to the game, I may still try to play this to the upside.
Portfolio Update.
Cash = $102,720
Open Positions
- 20 Oct'11 35.00 SLV Puts (-$2,480)
Open Orders
- N/A
Total = 102,720-2480 = $100,240.00
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
First Trade.
This is going to be a bit of a gamble, but it seems like I've missed the silver trade, so I need in somehow.
Lets sell some SLV Puts.
Trade --> Sell 20 SLV OCT'11 35.00 Puts @ Market ($1.36)
Info --> We will receive $2720 for the sale, and require $70,000 in margin to meet the requirements of the 20*100 SLV Share contract at $35.00. Ideally we hold these until expiration, but if silver flattens out, or looks ripe to short, maybe we'll sell these a little early. Worst case scenario we pick up 2000 SLV shares for an average cost of 33.64 (23.58% below market of $44.02)
Account Details
Cash = $100,000 + 2,720 = 102,720.
Open Positions
- 20 Oct'11 35.00 SLV Puts
Open Orders
N/A
This is going to be a bit of a gamble, but it seems like I've missed the silver trade, so I need in somehow.
Lets sell some SLV Puts.
Trade --> Sell 20 SLV OCT'11 35.00 Puts @ Market ($1.36)
Info --> We will receive $2720 for the sale, and require $70,000 in margin to meet the requirements of the 20*100 SLV Share contract at $35.00. Ideally we hold these until expiration, but if silver flattens out, or looks ripe to short, maybe we'll sell these a little early. Worst case scenario we pick up 2000 SLV shares for an average cost of 33.64 (23.58% below market of $44.02)
Account Details
Cash = $100,000 + 2,720 = 102,720.
Open Positions
- 20 Oct'11 35.00 SLV Puts
Open Orders
N/A
Investment Fund
Ok. I've been keeping a bit of a log about trades I like on my computer. It's been doing ok, and I'm motivated to make this real. You'll see from the post dates when exactly trades were recommended. I will be taking a lot of these trades with my own money, so that's my disclaimer. I have no investment credentials, and I take no responsibility for anything said or results garnered from my 'advice'. This is free. You get what you pay for.
Fund will be set up with $100,000 USD. Because I'm from Canada, I'll include that is the same as $95,760 CAD.
Fund will be set up with $100,000 USD. Because I'm from Canada, I'll include that is the same as $95,760 CAD.
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